CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-06-01T20:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-06-01T20:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/31269/-1
CME Note: A CME to the SE with a complex uneven (pointy) front that comes on the heels of and overlaps with the preceding (2024-06-01T19:12Z) halo CME. There might also be an fainter wider front associated with it as well but the identification of it is hard because of the outflows following the 2024-06-01T19:12Z CME. The source of this CME could be the M7.3 flare from Active Region 3697 (S20E21) peaking at 2024-06-01T19:40Z and an associated eruption signified by post-eruptive arcades and a somewhat more eastern dimming centered very approximately around (S20E25). From Carlos Perez Alanis (LASSOS team): Possible arrival signature of this CME is likely blended with/directly follows the arrival of an expected coronal hole high speed stream around 2024-06-03T20:43Z. The ICME shock is possibly seen around 2024-06-03T21:00Z, while the arrival of the flux rope is likely seen around 2024-06-03T21:30Z, where the Betta parameter (e.g. in Wind daily solar wind survey) drops. The possible end of the flux-rope is possibly around 2024-06-05T6Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-06-03T21:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-06-04T14:01Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 898.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 533.214 Acceleration: 0.830238 Duration in seconds: 237707.17 Duration in days: 2.7512404 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.83 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 730.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 04/06/2024 Time: 14:01 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 6.27 hour(s)
Difference: -16.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-06-03T15:24Z
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